Key Markets: DRC, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Zimbabwe

Ghana has converted roughly $13.1bn of Eurobonds at about a 37% nominal reduction and Zambia has completed its Common Framework deal, proving official-creditor coordination can work — but the IMF warned on 12 September that rising debt and political interference are undermining Ghana’s state-owned enterprises. Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria and Ethiopia remain the pressure points, with Nigeria facing heavy maturities on a weaker naira and no IMF programme as a backstop.

Sources: Atlantic Council, S&P Global Ratings, IMF

Key Markets: USA, Brazil, Colombia, Panama

A crude rally has flipped the rate story: with Brent above $100 and August inflation at 3.4%, markets put roughly 78% odds on a 25-basis-point Fed hike — reversing the easing emerging markets had positioned for, and raising external borrowing costs across the board. Layered on that, November midterms are lifting shutdown and fiscal-standoff risk, leaving US trade and fiscal policy a variable rather than a constant.

Sources: CBS News, CNBC, Morgan Stanley

Key Markets: Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines

Beijing has extended and formalised export licensing across rare earths and critical minerals through 2026, forcing manufacturers in autos, electronics, defence and clean energy to reroute supply and build inventory buffers. Paired with Western semiconductor controls, the effect is a mutual chokehold that raises the cost and lead time of building anything electrified.

Sources: ODI, China Briefing, European Parliament Research Service

Key Markets: UAE, Saudi Arabia, UK, France

An unresolved US–Iran standoff is adding an estimated $4 to $10 a barrel and keeping Strait of Hormuz shipping risk live, putting a maritime risk premium back on trade routes that had been assumed away. Across the region and beyond, electricity — not capital — is now the binding constraint on expansion, with data-centre and industrial projects delayed where firm power cannot be secured.

Sources: EnergyNow, EY Geostrategic Analysis, IEA